Turning Point or Trouble? MTSU Faces Crucial Midweek Test vs. Missouri State
MURFREESBORO, Tenn. — Stakes are high under the lights.
Conference USA’s midweek slate kicks off tonight at Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium, where the Blue Raiders (1–4, 0–1 CUSA) host the Missouri State Bears (2–3, 0–1 CUSA) in a showdown with impact far beyond a single game.
MTSU needs to halt a slump and set the tone for three straight Wednesday matchups. Missouri State, playing its first FBS season, wants to validate its move to CUSA and take its first conference win.
What’s at Stake?
This game carries more than just win-loss implications for either program. For Middle. It’s about restoring confidence in front of a home crowd & proving they can handle the midweek grind. For Mo State, it’s a chance to show that their roster and staff belong at the FBS level, despite transition constraints.
Offensive Breakdown: Vattiato vs. the Odds
Fifth-Year Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato has been one of the few steady hands this season. With 1,125 passing yards through five games, he’s on pace for another 2,500+ yard season. His poise in the pocket and command of the offense give MTSU a chance in nearly every game.
However, he can’t do it alone. The rushing attack, led by Jekail Middlebrook’s 340 yards, hasn’t consistently moved the chains. Opposing defenses know it, they thrive on it, and force Vattiato into obvious passing situations and limiting explosive plays.
The receiving corps has shown promise:
Nahzae Cox (341 yards, 4 touchdowns) has been the go-to target.
Myles Butler (180 yards) and Cam’ron Lacy (159 yards) have flashed in spurts.
You could throw in Middlebrook’s RPO abilty (146 yards) to the stats as well.
Still, until the offensive line creates more push in the run game, MTSU’s offense will remain one-dimensional.
Photo courtesy of Middle Tennessee State Athletics
Defensive Breakdown: Bend, But Too Often Break
Defensively, MTSU has pieces to work with. Senior linebacker Brandon Buckner (18 tackles, 2 sacks) has been a reliable anchor in the middle with star transfer Alex Mitchell still sidelined with injury, while defensive linemen Anthony Bynum & Damonte Smith continue to grow into disruptive presences on the line.
However, the secondary has been exposed too often. Against Marshall, receivers found open lanes downfield. Against Wisconsin, missed tackles turned medium gains into backbreakers.
A few player stats:
Senior LB Parker Hughes leads all tackles with 42. Muaaz Byard is second with 27.
Damonte Smith & Zion Simpson-Smith both have 2 sacks tallied out of 9 total.
Juwon Gaston has 2 of the 3 interceptions.
Photo courtesy of Middle Tennessee State Athletics
Scouting the Bears
Led by head coach Ryan Beard (14-14), Mo State are in their inaugural FBS season as members of Conference USA. Despite the growing pains of transition, the Bears have flashed big-play potential and competitiveness through five games. Senior quarterback Jacob Clark leads the offense with 1,195 passing yards and eight touchdowns, providing experience and poise under center, however he is day-to-day after an injury vs. Western Kentucky last week. Freshman Deuce Bailey has seen limited snaps and could step in if needed. In the backfield, Reggie Branch II offers steady production, while receivers Dash Luke (310 yards, 2 TDs) and Jmariyae Robinson (212 yards) headline a passing attack that thrives on tempo and vertical shots downfield.
Defensively, the Bears have been aggressive but inconsistent. The’ve created multiple turnovers, including several key interceptions, yet struggle in red zone and rush defense, allowing scores on nearly 90% of opponent trips inside the 20 and yielding over 5.4 yards per carry. Their ability to pressure quarterbacks and capitalize on mistakes keeps them competitive, but depth and late-game endurance remain challenges as they continue adjusting to FBS speed and physicality.
Photo courtesy of Missouri State Athletics
Keys to the Game
For Middle Tennessee:
Start fast: Avoid falling behind early against a team that will try to own momentum.
Run to set up play-action: Middlebrook and Hunt Jr. must help soften the defense.
Protect the quarterback: Preventing pressure and collapse will help Vattiato function efficiently.
Tighten the back end: The secondary must limit big plays and correct communication errors.
Win the turnover battle & special teams edge: Field position and takeaways could swing results.
For Missouri State:
Disrupt Vattiato: Consistent pressure and disguised blitzes may force mistakes.
Exploit secondary seams: Target mismatches deep or between zones.
Balance attack: Use the run threat to keep MTSU off-balance.
Force turnovers: Their defense has had success with takeaways, therefore they should lean into that.
Minimize penalties: Road games penalize undisciplined play; stay sharp.
Photo courtesy of Missouri State Athletics
Final Word
As the lights shine on Floyd Stadium, this midweek clash is about more than standings or stat lines. It’s about identity. For Middle Tennessee, it’s a moment to reset, refocus, and prove they can respond when challenged. For Missouri State, it’s another step in their climb toward FBS legitimacy. Both programs are searching for direction, and tonight offers a chance to find it. However it unfolds, this one feels like a defining chapter in each team’s October story.
STAFF PREDICTIONS
Jonathan: This feels like a reset opportunity. The lights of Floyd, fall weather, and Middle’s back home with something to prove. We’ve all seen flashes from this team: Vattiato’s solid drives, Cox’s big-time catches, Gaston’s interceptions; now it’s about stringing it all together.
Mo State’s new to the FBS grind, and while they’ve got some playmakers, they haven’t played in the ‘boro yet. I think the energy in Floyd Stadium, paired with a few key defensive stops, gives MTSU the edge. The Raiders need this one in the worst way, and I think they deliver. Middle Tennessee 27, Missouri State 23
Drake: The Blue Raiders come off of a bye week ready to turn the tide on the season for their first weekday CUSA game of the season. While new to FBS, the Bears have shown they can compete at this level already. Missouri State also faced Marshall at home earlier in the season, beating the Thundering Herd 21-20 in a four quarter thriller.
Middle Tennessee has improved every game this season in one aspect or another and will look to continue that trend this week. After the Kennesaw State game, a common theme in the post game press conference was that they only played three quarters against the Owls. If the Blue Raiders come out firing and don’t let off the gas, this week could prove fruitful in the win column. Middle Tennessee 28, Missouri State 24
RJ: The Blue Raiders have their work cut out for them as they face off against a 2-3 Missouri State team that might be better than their record suggests. The Bears jumped out two a two-possession lead against SMU, and had a chance to stop Western Kentucky at the end of a close one-possession game. Missouri State has a very solid receiver group, and I expect the Bears to have a night against the Blue Raiders’ secondary. Middle Tennessee 20, Missouri State 30
