Blue Raider Check-in: What do analytics say about the 2025 Blue Raiders?
Murfreesboro, Tenn.— It’s the eighth of October in Murfreesboro, the Blue Raiders have a -73 point differential and a win-loss record of just 1-4. For some, the outlook on the rest of the season or the evaluation of the team’s performance so far might be grim, but let’s take a deep dive into what different college football analytics have to say about the 2025 version of the Blue Raiders.
ESPN FPI
You either love it or you hate it, ESPN FPI. The most used college football analytics database, but also one of the most criticized. For those not familiar, according to ESPN Sports Analytics, college FPI is defined as “a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.” What might the “College Football Power Index” have to say about a struggling Blue Raiders team?
The Power Index lists Middle Tennessee 131st out of 136 FBS programs, giving the Blue Raiders a -19.2 strength on the net points scale, meaning that -19.2 is the expected point margin vs the average opponent on a neutral field. This number is not pretty, but it could be worse. The Charlotte 49ers (-20.2), Akron Zips (-20.3), Sam Houston Bearcats (-20.7), Massachusetts Minutemen (-24.2), and Kent State Golden Flashes (-24.7) all boast worse net point ratings from ESPN FPI.
However, in terms of projected win-loss record, the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders are ranked much higher on ESPN FPI. The Blue Raiders rank 123rd out of 136 schools with an average projected win-loss record of 3.5-8.5, better than Purdue (3.4-8.6), Sam Houston (1.9-10.1), and Nevada (2.4-9.6), among other programs. ESPN FPI also gives the Blue Raiders a 4.5% chance of eclipsing the 6-win mark, a mark that hasn’t been reached since 2022 when the Blue Raiders defeated the San Diego State Aztecs en route to an 8-5 season.
Kelley Ford
One of the less popular college football analytics sites is that of Kelley Ford’s https://kfordratings.com. Kelley’s rankings cover plenty of different areas: watchability, power rankings, resumé rankings, and many more.
For evaluation purposes, today we’ll just cover where the Blue Raiders stand in terms of general power ratings, change in power ratings since the beginning of the season, and power ratings of all three units.
In terms of Kelley Ford power ratings, they operate quite similarly to ESPN FPI, meaning that the net points rating received by teams from the Kelley Ford ratings is defined as the “points per game above or below FBS average”. ESPN FPI gave the Blue Raiders a -19.2 strength rating, but Kelley Ford’s system gave the Blue Raiders a -20.8 rating. It’s also important to note that this rating is “purely predictive” and not a resumé ranking, according to kfordratings.com. This rating places MTSU 132nd out of 136, only ahead of Charlotte (-21.0), Sam Houston (-22.1), UMass (-26.2), and Kent State (-26.3).
Also, another bit of information that is very interesting about this net rating is that at least thirty FCS schools are looked at more favorably by Ford’s model. Obviously, the powerhouse schools like NDSU (8.2) and SDSU (1.0) have positive ratings, making them much higher rated than the Blue Raiders. But, even teams like the 2-3 Idaho Vandals (-16.3) have higher ratings than MTSU does, and yes, Austin Peay is also power-rated ahead of Middle Tennessee (-17.7).
This rating of -20.8 is 4.1 points lower than the Kelley Ford model had MTSU in the preseason, as the model had the Blue Raiders at 127th out of 136 teams at a rating of -16.7.
In terms of which Middle Tennessee unit is power rated the highest, it is sure and away the Blue Raiders’ special teams unit. Kelley Ford’s model ranks the Middle Tennessee special teams unit as the 94th best in the country. Kicker Jacob Hathaway is perfect on extra points this year and has one field goal miss on a 36-yard attempt against Nevada. Other than that, Hathaway has been perfect, and he even has a 50-yard field goal make. Only 44 kickers share that honor this season, and only 5 C-USA kickers have booted a field goal make 50 yards or more. Middle Tennessee punter Ashton Logan is also third among all C-USA punters this year in total punt yards.
Middle Tennessee’s other units aren’t looked at as highly by Ford’s rating system, though. The offense ranks 133rd in the FBS, and the defense ranks 130th.
Image courtesy of goblueraiders.com
PEARatings
PEARatings is another fairly unpopular college football analytics site that has quality statistics and information. pearating.streamlit.app is an independent statistics source similar to Kelley Ford and ESPN FPI.
Even though the formula is different, PEARatings isn’t higher on the Blue Raiders than the other sites are. The site ranks Middle Tennessee as 133rd out of 136 teams, only ahead of the typical suspects: Sam Houston, UMass, and Kent State.
PEARRatings ranks Middle Tennessee’s strength of schedule as 135th, only ahead of Toledo, and Middle Tennessee’s strength of record as the 131st in the country, ahead of UMass, South Alabama, Oregon State, Sam Houston, and Eastern Michigan. Let’s take a look at these teams’ resumés. UMass is 0-5 with a close loss to FCS Bryant. South Alabama is 1-5 with a 38-21 win over Morgan State. The Oregon State Beavers are 0-5 with close losses to App State and Houston. Sam Houston is 0-5, with every one of their losses coming by seventeen points or more. Finally, the Eastern Michigan Eagles, last place in PEARatings’ strength of record, are 1-5 with a win against Louisiana and a loss to FCS Long Island.
Final Thoughts
Middle Tennessee’s season hasn’t gone to plan so far, and the advanced analytics back that up. On Wednesday night, the Blue Raiders are set to kick off against Missouri State in Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium.